The sensitivity of ozone concentrations to the fuel switchover is consistent with a NO x-limited regime, as expected for a tropical forest having high emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds, high water vapor concentrations, and abundant solar radiation.
The results of the simulations indicate that a change to natural gas significantly decreases maximum afternoon ozone concentrations over the population center, reducing ozone by > 70 % for the most polluted days. The simulated NO x and CO emissions for the urban region decrease by 89 and 55 %, respectively, after the complete change in the energy matrix. Transportation and refinery operations were held constant across the three scenarios to focus on effects of power plant fuel switching in a tropical context. For each case, inventories of anthropogenic emissions were based on electricity generation, refinery operations, and transportation.
The third scenario considered nearly complete use of natural gas for electricity production, which is the anticipated future, possibly for 2018. The second scenario was based on the fuel mix from 2014, the most current year for which data were available. The first scenario used fuel oil and diesel for electricity production, which was the reality in 2008. Three scenarios of urban air quality, specifically afternoon ozone concentrations, were simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-Chem) model. Manaus, the largest city in the central Amazon Basin of Brazil, is in the process of changing its energy matrix for electricity production from fuel oil and diesel to natural gas over an approximately 10-year period, with a minor contribution by hydropower. How a changing energy matrix for electricity production affects air quality is considered for an urban region in a tropical, forested environment. Souza Hide author details Received: – Discussion started: – Revised: – Accepted: – Published: Ībstract.
5 Department of Physics, Federal University of Technology, Av.4 Post-graduate Program in Environmental Engineering, Federal University of Technology, Av.3 Amazonas State University, Superior School of Technology, Av Darcy Vargas, 1200, 69065-020, Manaus, Amazonas,.2 Amazonas State University, Center of Superior Studies of Tefé, R.1 Post-graduate Program in Climate and Environment, CLIAMB, INPA/UEA, Av.